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TERMS OF ENGAGEMENT
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NATO Summit : Opportunity to Showcase Commitment to Afghanistan
Lisa Curtis
The long-awaited NATO Summit being held in Chicago next week with more
than 60 heads of state and government in attendance will focus much of
its deliberations on the future of Afghanistan. While “transition” has
become a buzzword for the NATO mission in Afghanistan, the U.S and NATO
Commander in Afghanistan General John Allen is rightly focusing instead
on the importance of a long-term Alliance commitment to the country.
Taking the long view on Afghanistan means NATO countries recognize that
it is in their collective national security interest to prevent
Afghanistan from ever becoming a terrorist safe haven again. Each NATO
country must demonstrate that it will remain committed to Afghanistan’s
stability and security long after 2014, when NATO combat operations are
scheduled to end. This is important both to reassure average Afghans
that the international community will not abandon them like it did in
1989 and to signal to the Taliban that it cannot simply wait out the
coalition.
US Strategy for Afghanistan & N Waziristan
U.S. and Pakistani officials have been intensely negotiating the
reopening of a NATO supply route that has been closed for almost six
months. On May 14, Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar said
Pakistan needed to close the supply route to make a point, but
Islamabad is now ready to move forward. Washington welcomed her
comments but cautioned that the two sides are still working on a deal.
After months of hard bargaining a new agreement will probably lead to
the reopening of the supply route. The agreement will not resolve every
issue, especially since Pakistan wants to redefine the nature of its
cooperation with the United States on Afghan security. Pakistan will
continue to demand that Washington end its unilateral unmanned aerial
vehicle (UAV) strikes, which largely target militants in Pakistan's
North Waziristan. Pakistan could use the U.S.-Taliban negotiations to
extract concessions from the United States on this issue.
North Waziristan is the only tribal agency in the Federally
Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) that Pakistan has excluded from its
ongoing offensive against Taliban rebels and their transnational
allies.
India & the US: Squaring the Circle on Iran
S. Samuel C. Rajiv
India’s continuing energy cooperation with Iran continues to be a prime
area of foreign policy divergence between India and the United States.
Though India has stated time and again that a nuclear Iran is not in
its strategic interests and bad for regional stability, it has not
desisted from sourcing much needed energy supplies from Iran.
Washington, on its part, contends that a prime source of funding for
Tehran’s nuclear activities is its oil revenues. This, it asserts, is
recognised even by extant UN Security Council resolutions like 1929 of
June 2010. Sanctioning three oil companies (Chinese Zhenrong,
Singaporean Kuo Oil and Sharjah-based FAL Oil) under the provisions of
the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions and Divestment Act (CISADA) in January
2012 for supplying refined oil to Iran beyond the limits set by CISADA
($5 million worth transactions in a 12-month period), the US State
Department noted that UNSCR 1929 “recognized the potential connection
between Iran’s revenues derived from its energy sector and the funding
of its proliferation sensitive nuclear activities.”
US Strategic Thinking in an Era of Energy Self Sufficiency
R. S. Kalha
According to well placed oil industry sources, the arrival of new technology and innovative methods of drilling are opening up new vistas hitherto thought impossible. Natural gas and oil stored deep underground in fine-grained sedimentary rocks can be extracted using a process known as hydraulic fracturing—or ‘fracking’—which involves drilling long horizontal wells in shale rocks more than a kilometre below the surface. Massive quantities of water, sand and chemicals are pumped into the wells at high pressure. This opens up fissures in the shale rock formations, which are then held open by the sand, enabling the trapped gas and oil to escape to the surface for collection. President Obama has strongly endorsed the new production technology as a boon to the US economy and energy security.
China's Banana Diplomacy with the Philipines
Philippine President Benigno Aquino III has said that banana growers should seek alternatives to the Chinese market. The statement follows recent reports that Chinese customs agents would begin inspecting banana and pineapple shipments from the Philippines for "harmful organisms." Under the heightened scrutiny, Chinese customs agents have impounded ships carrying bananas from the Philippines, causing the cargo to spoil at the expense of Philippine growers. The tensions over China's import restrictions on Philippine fruit come as travel agencies in China and Taiwan stop Chinese tourism in the Philippines due to the Scarborough Shoal maritime dispute.
As the third-largest destination for Philippine exports, China possesses significant economic leverage over the relatively small island country. It will use this leverage to persuade the Philippines to relax its claims in the South China Sea.
China seems to be focusing on sectors large, strategic and urgent enough (fruit spoils quickly, and there are no reserves to mitigate a dip in tourism) to send Manila a message without seriously damaging the Philippine and Chinese economies.
Peace Paroxysms Strike Again
Sushant Sareen
Irrational exuberance instead of cold, calculated, and hard-headed analysis; a tendency to attribute greater importance to unsubstantiated statements professing a desire for peace and good neighbourly relations instead of substantial actions that would bear out these pious sentiments; evaluating situations and circumstances on the basis of wishful thinking about the motives and motivation of the other side; a touching faith on personalities and their seemingly changing attitudes rather than keeping an eye on whether or not there is a change in paradigms; and imagining reality instead of appreciating and understanding it—this, in short, is the sum and substance of what goes into the making of India’s Pakistan policy, if not at the official level then at least at the political and ‘intellectual’ levels.
Pakistan Needs U.S. Help to Fight Terrorism
Lisa Curtis
Pakistan’s military has lost more than 3,000 security personnel in the fight against terrorism. Such sacrifices are often overshadowed in the U.S., where the media (rightly) focus on Pakistan’s lack of action against groups like the Haqqani network that targets U.S. forces in Afghanistan and the Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, responsible for the terrorist atrocities in Mumbai in November 2008.
While Pakistani military leaders seem to believe they can handle the terrorist threat to their own country without targeting all of the terrorist groups that find sanctuary there, the recently released Osama bin Laden files tell a different story. The bin Laden documents reveal the extremist network inside Pakistan is pervasive and resilient and, most importantly, unified in its commitment to an ideology that demands permanent war with the West. Unless Pakistan’s military leaders awaken to the dangers that lie ahead from the Islamist extremist threat and recognize their best hope for confronting it lies in forming an effective partnership with the U.S., the threat may eventually overwhelm the Pakistani state.
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ARAB WORLD
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Iran Gains from GCC Indecision
The meeting Monday of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), a group of nations comprising Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates, was expected to focus on discussions of a union of the six states. The most immediate union was to have been between Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. Bahrain, facing unrest from its Shiite population against its Sunni leadership, has seen the intervention of Saudi forces designed to stabilize the regime. Some sort of union was logical.
Neither increased integration between Saudi Arabia and Bahrain nor any move toward integration took place. It was, rather, postponed. The precise reason for postponement was unclear, but the logic wasn’t. The Iranians are, as Stratfor has pointed out, increasing their regional power. Apart from unrest in Bahrain, which clearly has some degree of Iranian support, there is Shiite unrest elsewhere, including Saudi Arabia’s oil-rich Eastern Province. Only on paper would a Saudi-Bahraini union strengthen the region.
Algeria's Internal Political Issues
Ahead of Algerian parliamentary elections May 10, much has been reported in the media about the potential for an Islamist-led government akin to the government in Tunisia to take over. Algeria has decided to allow Islamist candidates to participate in the elections for the first time since they were banned in 1991. Although moderate Islamists are sure to win some seats in parliament, the Algerian regime has the tools to limit their overall influence.
The more important issue is the struggle quietly taking place ahead of the 2014 presidential election between the traditional holders of power, controlled by the military, and the intelligence services, in particular the Department of Research and Security (DRS).
Election Background
Unlike in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Morocco, Algeria's upcoming parliamentary elections are not part of a government response to civilian unrest or threats to the political establishment. Rather, these are regularly scheduled elections for Algeria's lower house, the National People's Assembly.
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GEOPOLITICS
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India's Oil Hunt in South China Sea to Continue
C. Raja Mohan
A
series of recent reports have given the impression that India is ending
its oil hunt in the South China Sea. Some have suggested that ONGC
Videsh Ltd is withdrawing from the contested waters of the South China
Sea under political pressure from Beijing.
China indeed claims almost all of the South China Sea as its territory
and has routinely cautioned all foreign oil companies against
exploration and drilling for hydrocarbons. If Beijing's assertiveness
in the South China Sea is real, Delhi is not about to flee its
contested waters.
India, to be sure, is preparing to give up one of the blocks it has
been drilling in. But it has no intention of abandoning its search for
oil and natural gas in the South China Sea.
OVL has assessed that the prospects for finding oil in Block 128, which
it acquired from Vietnam in 2006, are limited. OVL had invested about
$50 million in exploring Block 128 until last year.
Saudi Nightmares
Robert D. Kaplan and Kamran Bokhari
The Saudi royals live with an
all-consuming fear -- that of an American understanding with Iran. The
Saudis know that the American estrangement from Iran is unnatural and
cannot go on forever. It has already lasted a third of a century,
almost a decade longer than America's estrangement from Communist
China. The Saudis also know that the logic of the present standoff over
Iran's nuclear ambitions must lead -- through war or peace -- to some
sort of American-Iranian dialogue about the two countries' core
interests in the Middle East.
The United States had excellent
relations with both Saudi Arabia and Iran up to 1978, but that was
during the Cold War, when both countries were implicitly aligned with
the Western camp against the Soviets. It was also during the rule of
Iran's shah, an absolute ruler who was seen as predictable and
responsible -- much more so than the competing power centers, both
clerical and not, that constitute Iran's current regime.
Contemporary Iran is fervently
Shiite and thus hostile to Saudi Arabia's austere Sunni Wahhabi
religious establishment in a way that the shah's secular regime was
not.
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NEIGHBOURHOOD WATCH |
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How does Pakistan see the War on Terrorism?
D Suba Chandran
This commentary is a response to a recent article on the war on terrorism (WoT), written by a former Foreign Secretary of Pakistan, Ambassador Shamsad Ahmed, which appeared in The News (http://bit.ly/KdScTU). Ambassador Ahmed argued: “We never had extremism in our country. Gen Musharraf allowed this monster to grow only to remain relevant in the war on terror and thus prolong his military rule. We also didn’t have this intensity of violence before he took over. The only violence we knew was sectarian in nature. Our involvement in this campaign today complicates our tasks, both at home and at regional and global levels. Our territorial integrity is being violated with impunity. We are accepting the responsibility for crimes we have not committed.”
What is the position of the majority of people in Pakistan on the war on terrorism? Extremism in Pakistan is a post-9/11 phenomenon
Many in Pakistan believe that the radical violence in Pakistan is the result of the American invasion of Afghanistan. However, neither history nor facts support this position fully.
Karachi: Machiavellian Operations
Tushar Ranjan Mohanty
Pakistan’s entrenched strategy of playing armed non-state actors against one another, to the progressive detriment of security and stability in the country, was manifested, once again, in efforts to ‘manage’ the rising organised crime-terrorism nexus in the port city of Karachi, the country’s financial capital and the provincial capital of Sindh. Islamabad launched a ‘grand operation’ in the Lyari area of Karachi on May 4, 2012, against the People’s Aman (Peace) Committee (PAC), which, till recently, was in the ‘good books’ of the ruling Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). Continuing their policy of playing one group against another, reports indicate that Security Forces (SFs) were using the rival Arshad Pappu gang in the ‘operation’. An unnamed SF officer, requesting anonymity, admitted that the SFs had sought assistance from Arshad Pappu’s men in identifying the hideouts and suspects.
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AFRICA MATTERS
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S. Sudanese Airlift to Start Monday: IOM
Sudan will withdraw its troops from the Abyei area which it seized a year ago only after a joint administrative body is established, the foreign ministry said on Sunday.
KHARTOUM (AFP) - An airlift of up to 15,000 ethnic South Sudanese aims to start from the Sudanese capital early Monday after a series of delays, the International Organisation for Migration said.
"We hope that we will have one plane leaving either 9:00 or 9:30 tomorrow morning (0600 or 0630 GMT)," Jill Helke, who heads the IOM in Sudan, told AFP on Sunday.
The first group of about 400 South Sudanese, mostly adults, travelled to Khartoum by bus on Saturday from the way-station of Kosti, 300 kilometres (190 miles) south of Khartoum.
They were expecting to take flights to the South's capital Juba early Sunday but a variety of factors have caused a delay in the airlift, Helke said, citing visa problems and insufficient rest time for the air crews.
Angola : An Exception to African Geography
Sub-Saharan Africa is a region hostile to human development. Steep-sided plateaus, jungle-covered mountains, swampy coasts, rugged uplands and barren deserts dominate most of its terrain. These pervasive barriers impede almost every type of meaningful economic expansion in almost every part of the continent aside from South Africa's coastal strip.
Without arable plains, agricultural surpluses cannot be created easily. Without navigable rivers, goods cannot be transported to potential markets cheaply. Most of sub-Saharan Africa's geography is antithetical to capital generation, yet the region needs large volumes of capital to compensate for its shortcomings.
As a result, the region -- similar to other places where capital is in high demand but low supply -- is beset by widespread poverty.
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STATE OF THE UNION
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Terrorism: Negotiate to Perish
R S N Singh
The upsetting culture of negotiations was injected into the Indian security discourse by India’s then Home Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, for the release of his daughter Rubaiya Sayeed who had been taken hostage. Thereafter, 13 years down the line there have been series of humiliating capitulations by the Indian state. In each of these, the State appeared effete and inept. With every capitulation, terrorist organisations inimical to India, within and outside, grew in stature, strength and sway. Jihadi terror spawned SIMI (Student Islamic Movement of India) and later IM (Indian Mujahideen). Consequently, this terror has traveled from Kashmir into the Indian heartland. Similarly, Maoist terror is consuming large parts of India with nearly 200 districts being affected as of date.
A matter of concern now is the link being developed between jihadi terror and Maoist terror. Of greater concern is the role of the over-ground white-collared jihadi and Maoist activists residing in New Delhi.
The Missing Elements in the Counter-Naxal Strategy
Ali Ahmed
The Home Ministry’s Annual Report states this about its counter-Maoist strategy: “While it is necessary for the State Governments to conduct proactive and sustained operations against the extremists, and put in place all measures required for this, it is also necessary to simultaneously give focused attention to development and governance issues, particularly at the cutting edge level.” This is based on “the belief of Government of India that through a combination of development, security and Forest Rights related interventions, the LWE problem can be successfully tackled.”
The development front comprises the well known flagship programmes and the INR 1500 crore Planning Commission monitored Integrated Action Plan in the targeted 78 districts. However, the kidnappings of the district administration heads of Malkangiri, and more recently, Sukma, suggest that the development prong may be laudable in intent but the state lacks capacity for implementation. The Annual Report admits to the inability, stating, “the process of development has been set back by decades in many parts of the country under LWE influence.”
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| BREAKING NEWS |
Syria-wide protests urged as Qaeda fears growsDAMASCUS (AFP) - Anti-regime activists have called for Syria-wide protests in support of students in Aleppo, a day after thousands of them rallied, emboldened by the presence of UN truce observers. read more..
Hollande facing diplomatic crash course in USPARIS (AFP) - Just days after being sworn in, French President Francois Hollande was in Washington for a crash course in big-power diplomacy in back-to-back summits at the White House, G8 and NATO. read more..Russia protesters try new tactics against PutinMOSCOW (AFP) - A mass walk led by writers, camping out at night in the city, cat-and-mouse games with the police: Russia's protest movement is trying out novel tactics to keep up pressure on Vladimir Putin. read more..
Two NATO troops killed in Afghan attackKABUL, Afghanistan (AFP) - Two NATO soldiers were killed and six others wounded in a rocket attack on their base in Afghanistan's eastern province of Kunar, an Afghan official with NATO forces said. read more..Greek banks, hostage to rumours, new pollATHENS (AFP) - Greek banks, struggling to stay afloat after two years of unending crisis, are back in the firing line, beset by rumours of a run on deposits and facing more uncertainty as the country holds fresh polls. read more..
Obama eases investment curbs on Myanmar, names ambassadorWASHINGTON (AFP) - President Barack Obama eased investment sanctions on Myanmar and named the first US ambassador to the country in 22 years, seeking to reward an easing of "iron fist" rule. read more..Greek euro exit looms as G8 gathersWASHINGTON (AFP) - World leaders huddled at Camp David over the weekend with the focus on Greece as it stumbles toward an unprecedented eurozone exit that holds wildly uncertain repercussions for the global economy. read more..China jails smuggling king Lai 'for life'BEIJING (AFP) - A Chinese court has handed a life sentence to Lai Changxing, the head of a vast smuggling operation who spent 12 years on the run in Canada before being deported last year, state media said. read more..
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ISSUES
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China’s Foreign Policy Debate
Bhaskar Roy
Foreign
policy debates are normal in any big and influential country. The best
minds in the country are tapped by the government to assess different
views to elicit opinion what the people want, what the external
environment portends and, finally, prepare responses and actions.
China, as a one party state may not have problems of opposition parties
snapping at its heels like in India, but unlike in the Maoist era,
today Chinese leaders have to take into consideration different voices
within the system represented in the Party’s politburo and its 9-member
standing committee.
According to Li Wei, a lecturer at the Renmin University of China’s
School of International Studies (Feb 20, 21st Century Business Herald),
an intense debate is currently on in the country’s foreign policy
establishment examining whether Deng Xiaoping’s dictum “hide your
strength, bide your time” is still relevant.
It is not for the first time that Deng’s policy has been questioned. He
crafted this policy, which has more advise, around 1991-92 when China
was isolated internationally following the June, 1989 Tiananmen Square
incident.
Dalai Lama Reveals Chinese Plot Against Him
Dean Nelson, The Telegraph
The Dalai Lama has revealed his fears after being warned that Chinese agents have hatched a plot to kill him.
(Chinese officials on Monday however, rubbished the claim as a figment of the Tibetan spiritual leader's imagination.)
In an exclusive interview with this week's Sunday Telegraph, the 76-year-old Nobel Peace Prize winner, revealed he had been passed reports from inside Tibet warning that Chinese agents had trained Tibetan women for a mission to poison him while posing as devotees seeking his blessings.
The Tibetan Buddhist leader said he lives within a high security cordon in his temple palace grounds in Dharamsala, in the Himalayan foothills, on the advice of Indian security officials.
China Enhances its Maritime Muscle
The Chinese Marine Surveillance (CMS) announced May 9 that 36 new vessels are expected to join its surveillance fleet by 2013. This announcement comes at a time when China is greatly expanding the capabilities of the CMS in an effort to assert itself in its claimed maritime zones. An aggressive China equipped with a larger maritime enforcement fleet will increase the chances of a military incident occurring in contested waters like the South China Sea.
The CMS fleet's new ships reportedly include seven 1,500-ton ships, 15 1,000-ton ships and 14 600-ton ships. According to the CMS, construction on the 14 600-ton ships began May 8. Previous CMS vessels of more than 1,000-ton displacement have proven sea-worthy and able to stay at sea for more than a month.
Tasks before Indian Foreign Policy
Arvind Gupta
Foreign policy is the tool by which India interacts with the world
outside its borders. The two primary objectives of India’s foreign
policy are: a) protection of India’s national sovereignty and
territorial integrity; and b) promotion of the well being of the Indian
people. Thus, India’s foreign policy is designed to promote national
security and development.
Foreign policy is impacted by global, regional and internal
developments. India’s global, regional and internal environment has
become highly complex, posing several challenges to India’s foreign
policy.
The global environment is marked by the re-distribution of power,
reflected in the rise of new power centres and the relative decline of
the West. India has benefited from globalisation and economic
liberalisation. It is one of the rising powers in the world. However,
in order to leverage its strengths and mitigate its weaknesses, India
will need to think strategically to navigate the turbulent global order.
France's Strategy
George Friedman
New political leaders do not invent new national strategies. Rather, they adapt enduring national strategies to the moment. On Tuesday, Francois Hollande was inaugurated as France's president, and soon after taking the oath of office, he visited German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin. The talks are expected to be about austerity and the European Union, but the underlying issue remains constant: France's struggle for a dominant role in European affairs at a time of German ascendance.
Two events shaped modern French strategy. The first, of course, was the defeat of Napoleon in 1815 and the emergence of Britain as the world's dominant naval power and Europe's leading imperial power. This did not eliminate French naval or imperial power, but it profoundly constrained it. France could not afford to challenge Britain any more and had to find a basis for accommodation, ending several centuries of hostility if not distrust.
The second moment came in 1871 when the Prussians defeated France and presided over the unification of German states. After its defeat, France had to accept not only a loss of territory to Germany but also the presence of a substantial, united power on its eastern frontier.
Wake up to the Real World, EU!
Samir Saran and John C. Hulsman
One tired conversation that dominates most European institutions and forums threatens to become a fatal liability, distancing the European Union (EU) from its partners across the Atlantic and among the new capitals that influence global decision making in Asia, Africa and Latin America. It is Europe's obsession with "Common Values" and the Don Quixote-like quest for "Common Humanity." Wasting time and intellectual capital looking for this faux Holy Grail is doing nothing less than preventing the global community from discovering vital common ground on the key issues that the emerging multipolar world is confronted with. Be the issue of climate change, political intervention in unstable nations, or over geopolitical stability, spending time trying to find the fool's gold of universal values gets in the way of cutting the interest-based deals that will actually make the new multi-polar world work.
Europe's Demographic Decline.
Stratfor
Francois Hollande was inaugurated Tuesday as France's new president. Immediately following the ceremony, the nascent leader boarded a flight to Berlin to meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. While the commotion over Greece's inability to form a new government captured much of the media's attention, in Stratfor's view, the future of the Franco-German partnership trumps all other political issues in Europe. This partnership has served as the keystone of the modern European construct and has been the leading force behind the Continent's recovery efforts. But while a Franco-German consensus is immediately critical for Europe, it is demographics that are crucial for survival. Tuesday's European Union 2012 Report on Aging illustrates that European economies will continue to be strained even if France and Germany are able to muddle through the most recent debt crisis.
The postwar construct of Europe, which is currently manifested in the form of the European Union, can only function as long as German and French interests remain mostly aligned.
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TERROR AND VIOLENCE
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Terrorism & the Exceptional Individual
Scott Stewart
There has been a lot of chatter in intelligence and academic circles
about al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) bombmaker Ibrahim
al-Asiri and his value to AQAP. The disclosure last week of a thwarted
AQAP plot to attack U.S. airliners using an improved version of an
"underwear bomb" used in the December 2009 attempted attack aboard a
commercial airplane and the disclosure of the U.S. government's easing
of the rules of engagement for unmanned aerial vehicle strikes in Yemen
played into these discussions. People are debating how al-Asiri's death
would affect the organization. A similar debate undoubtedly will erupt
if AQAP leader Nasir al-Wahayshi is captured or killed.
AQAP has claimed that al-Asiri trained others in bombmaking, and the
claim makes sense. Furthermore, other AQAP members have received
training in constructing improvised explosive devices (IEDs) while
training and fighting in places such as Iraq and Afghanistan. This
means that al-Asiri is not the only person within the group who can
construct an IED.
Seoul Summit & Future of Nuclear Security
Monika Chansoria
The recently concluded Seoul Summit 2012 on nuclear security
re-affirmed nuclear terrorism as a significant challenge to
international security and carried forward the agenda of nuclear
security, first hosted by US President Barack Obama in Washington in
2010.
One of the key areas that the agenda of nuclear security seeks to
address is preventing sensitive and hazardous nuclear material,
including highly enriched uranium (HEU), and separated plutonium from
falling into the hands of terrorist groups/networks. The Obama
administration has committed to "lead a global effort to secure all
loose nuclear materials around the world" during its first term in
office. The Washington 2010 Summit asserted that effective security of
nuclear materials should include sensitive nuclear materials used in
nuclear weapons, in nuclear facilities.
Indian Mujahideen: Mutating Threat
Sanchita Bhattacharya
Disclosures by Indian Mujahideen (IM) cadres arrested since November 2011, and subsequent investigations have brought to light the consolidation of new leadership of the group in India, as well as the emergence of new bases of operation. The IM is a faction within the Students' Islamic Movement of India (SIMI), and has been responsible for a series of terrorist attacks across the country.
Recent reports indicate that Yasin Bhatkal alias Mohammed Ahmed Sidibapa alias Imran alias Shahrukh had emerged as IM's 'operational chief' on Indian soil, and was the link between the Bhatkal brothers- Riyaz Ismile Shahbandri alias Riyaz Bhatkal alias Roshan Khan alias Aziz Bhai alias Mohmad Bhai, and Iqbal Ismail Shahbandri alias Iqbal Bhatkal alias Mohammed Bhai, who escaped to Pakistan during the 2008 Security Forces (SF) onslaught on the group, and are now in Karachi.
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Image
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Francois Hollande (right), Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius (next to Hollande) and Social Affairs and Health Minister Marisol Touraine (centre) prepare for the first meeting of the new cabinet this week. Hollande and Fabius had lunch with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Friday and Hollande then had a bilateral meeting with visiting British Prime Minister David Cameron.
© AFP
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DEFENCE & NUCLEAR ISSUES |
Indian Dilemmas on the Arms Trade Treaty
Prashant Dikshit
The keel of a global Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) was laid in 2003 by a group of Nobel Peace Laureates. But it received support in the United Nations General Assembly only in December 2006 when it passed Resolution 61/89. This resolution entrusted the UN Secretary-General with the task of seeking the views of Member States on the feasibility, scope and draft parameters for a comprehensive, legally binding, instrument establishing common international standards for the import, export and transfer of conventional arms. 153 member states had voted for the resolution and 24 countries had abstained. India was one of the countries to abstain but that did not come in the way of it being included in the Group of Government Experts (GGE) to undertake this task.
Not the Right Time to Demilitarise Siachen
S Kumar
In strategy, emotional response to an event is unwarranted. To be lured by the words of a shrewd adversary who is engaged in a continuous war against you is akin to surrendering to his strategy without fighting.
The olive branch extended by General Ashfaq Kayani to demilitarise Siachen is indeed a crafty manoeuvre to achieve what Pakistan has failed to achieve in Siachen for the last three decades through force. In large part, this has been brought about by the tragic death of about 120 Pakistani soldiers in an avalanche on the lower slopes West of the Saltoro Ridge. Today, Pakistan is finding its position on the feature increasingly untenable. It must be noted that there are no troops on the Siachen Glacier.
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ECONOMY & FINANCE
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State of the World Economy and Finance in 2012
Montek S Ahluwalia
From
the perspective of developing economies, the current crisis, which
began in 2008, interrupted a fairly long period in which developing
countries experienced broad based growth. Asia was the fastest growing
region, but it was not the only one. Growth was fairly broad based
with sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America also participating.
These gains in prosperity were interrupted when the crisis of 2008
produced a deceleration in global growth in 2009. At first, it looked
as if the crisis had been effectively contained as the industrialised
countries and the global economy recovered strongly in 2010. But
progress was again interrupted in 2011, with the emergence of sovereign
debt problems in Europe, especially in the Eurozone periphery.
These problems persist. The Eurozone is projected to experience a mild
contraction in the current year with unemployment at very high levels.
The Logic Behind China's Economic Policy.
China's four largest banks reportedly cut lending by about 99 percent
in the first two weeks of May compared to lending in the whole of
March. Just like any banking system, the Chinese have varied lending
rates in the past. However, the report that the largest banks have
effectively stopped lending, even if only for two weeks, is startling.
The report may be incorrect, or the lending cut might emanate from some
unknown process needed for internal bank management. But a far more
likely explanation is that the Chinese government deliberately chose to
cut loans. The question is why it has chosen to do this.
While we cannot gauge the thought processes of the Chinese Politburo,
we can begin thinking about this issue by considering its consequences.
A two-week hiatus in lending has an obvious impact on the economy,
particularly if the cutoff is followed by further constraints on
lending. read more.. |
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DANCE OF DEMOCRACY
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 Algeria's Army Plans Next Moves
Algeria's army-backed National Liberation Front (FLN) increased its
share of parliament by 84 seats in May 10 elections that the
international community labeled fair, free and transparent. The result
gives the army considerable influence in a parliament expected to draft
a new constitution. But the FLN's gains should not be interpreted as a
mandate for President Abdel Aziz Bouteflika's government or as evidence
of growing support for the ruling party.
The FLN secured 220 of the parliament's 462 seats, while the National
Rally for Democracy (RND), led by Prime Minister Ahmed Ouyahia and
backed by Algeria's powerful state security agencies, retained its
position as the second-largest party in parliament. The conservative
Islamist Green Alliance won 48 seats. The FLN benefited from a
divided and poorly organized opposition to increase its margin of
victory in the election. Youth participation in the political process
waned due to increasing dissatisfaction with the government.
read more...
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| WIKILEAKS CABLES |
| |  SUB: Iran's Uranium Program, EU Sanctions & IRISL Activities in Port of Antwerp
REF: A. SECSTATE 15979 śB. SECSTATE 16219 śC. BRUSSELS 381
Classified By: ACTING POL/ECON COUNSELOR ROBERT KIENE ś1. (C) SUMMARY: On February 25, Acting PolEconCouns and PolIntern met with Werner Bauwens, the Belgian MFA's Special Envoy for Disarmament and Nonproliferation, regarding ref A and B demarches. Bauwens said Belgium regards Iran's insistence on moving forward with a higher level of uranium enrichment as a violation of Iran's international commitments, highly provocative, and useless as a practical matter for any purpose other than weapons production. He said that the EU is currently discussing the technical issues involved in possible new sanctions. Bauwens said the EU will wait until the UNSC imposes its sanctions, which he believes will be fairly light, and then issue its own sanctions which will be much more onerous. |
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